When will El Niño conditions end in San Diego?

Following another substantial storm, it the end of San Diego’s rainy season in sight?

A rainy street with water pooling over a crosswalk.

We’re ready for the puddle to dry.

Another bout of rain has come and gone. Over the three-day period that ended Feb. 21, 2024, at 9:19 a.m., here are some rainfall totals:

  • Carlsbad: 0.86 inches
  • San Diego International Airport: 0.83 inches
  • Chula Vista: 0.69 inches

Now, is San Diego’s rainy season over? Probably not — the county has a slightly above average chance of precipitation through March 15. But, the probability of El Niño conditions does start to decline in March.

By April, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says there’s a 79% chance San Diego will enter “El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral” conditions, aka “La Nada.” This phase — expected through June 2024 — describes a period without El Niño or La Niña, making it hard to forecast weather.

Beyond that, the ENSO outlook includes a La Niña watch for June-August 2024, placing the likelihood at 55%. This weather pattern is associated with drier conditions in San Diego.

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